The fact is Martin Longman is my go to guy when it comes to electorial analysis. So far he’s been right on the money when it comes to calling the rise of Trump and why. He’s also been on about Hillary and Bernie.

Probably the worst failure of analysis that I see occurs when people focus on the candidates rather than on coalitions of voters. The truth is, aside from some small changes in which subgroups of people decide not to vote at all, the same (types of) people who voted for Obama were always going to vote for Clinton or Sanders or even Lincoln Freakin’ Chafee.

via It’s About Coalitions, Not Personalities — Booman Tribune

Now, don’t just sit there, click on the link and go read it all. It’s a damn good write!